Well as promised this post will be all about the possible scenarios that can occur this weekend at the Tour Championship for each player still in the hunt to win the FedEx Cup. The top 5, unless Tiger is injured/pulls out, are the only ones who have a chance of taking out the Cup, so lets have a look at what can still happen.
(If you are looking for how the FedEx Cup works then you can read my earlier article FedEx Cup Explained - it includes info on prize money, point allocations and more )
How Tiger can win the FedExCup
| If Tiger finishes | Opponent Scenarios |
| 1st | He wins the FedEx Cup |
| 2nd | Stricker can win (with a 1st place finish) |
| 3rd | Mickelson and Striker can win (with a 1st place finish) |
| 4th-5th | Stricker can win (with 1st or 2nd place) Mickelson with a 1st place |
| 6th-13th | Stricker or Mickelson can win (with a 2nd place or better) |
| 14th-19th | Sabbatini can win (with 1st place) Mickelson or Stricker win (with 2nd place or better) |
| 20th-21st | Sabbatini can win (with 1st place) Mickelson win (with 2nd place or better) Stricker win (with 3rd or better) |
| 22nd-30th | Sabbatini or Choi can win (with a 1st place) Mickelson win (with 2nd or better) Stricker win (with 3rd or better) |
How Stricker can win the FedEx Cup
| If Stricker finishes | Opponent Scenarios |
| 1st | He takes home the cup |
| 2nd | Mickelson can win (with a 1st place), and Woods can win (with a 3rd place or better). |
| 3rd | Sabbatini can win (with 1st place), Mickelson with a second and Woods with a 19th or better |
| 4th or worse | He can not catch Woods |
How Mickelson can win the FedEx Cup
| If Mickelson finishes | Opponent Scenarios |
| 1st | Woods would wins with a solo 2nd |
| 2nd | Stricker can win with a tie for 2nd, and Woods can pass him with a 5th |
| 3rd | He can not catch Woods |
How Sabbatini can win the FedEx Cup
| If Sabbatini finishes | Opponent Scenarios |
| 1st | Mickelson would win with a solo 2nd |
| 1st | Stricker would with a two-way tie for 2nd |
| 1st | Woods would win with a two-way tie for 13th |
How Choi can win the FedEx Cup
| If Choi finishes | Opponent Scenarios |
| 1st | Mickelson would win with a 2nd place |
| 1st | Stricker would win with a 3rd place |
| 1st | Woods would win with a 21st or better |
Assuming Tiger is the man to catch (and he is) this little table gives a run down of where Tiger needs to finish for them to win the Cup (assuming they win this tournament).
| Player | FedExCup Points | Can win the FedExCup if he wins and Woods finishes |
| Steve Stricker | 109,600 | Solo second or worse |
| Phil Mickelson | 108,613 | Tie for second or worse |
| Rory Sabbatini | 103,588 | Tie for 13th or worse |
| K.J. Choi | 103,100 | 22nd or worse |
Final Thoughts
Firstly I hope that made some sense and helps you understand what must happen for each player to win. Golf is a strange game and can throw up some strange events at times, but I think that Tiger will take the inaugural FedEx Cup home and win 10 million for his retirement fund.
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3 comments:
Tom, thanks for spelling that out. All those scenarios really are a mouthful!
I appreciate you making this information available. Keep up the good work!
Thanks for your comment, I'm glad to help and it is always good to know that I helped someone understand.
Cheers
Tom
Tom, I was also wondering whether you knew of links to sites with useful golf statistics. I see a lot of links on your site, but I'm not sure what they all are.
As I mentioned in this entry, most of the statistics found on the PGA Tour website are beyond useless. They don't adjust for the fact that the top players play only the tougher courses, while other players play easier courses.
A statistic like, "Tiger Woods is 13-for-13 when having the lead in a major going into the final round, and 0-for when trailing," is useful. Unfortunately, there are a lot of such statistics that are not readily available. Just a thought regarding something that you could cover in future entries. I like to try to predict major winners, and I like to make it scientific.
So you're an Aussie, I see. Betting any money on your side in the Presidents Cup? I'll have to admit it's about time you guys won another one. I wouldn't bet any money on Team USA this year. But my side keeps getting beat in the Ryder Cup, so we at least need to keep winning this one, right?
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